This is a component of the ad hoc covid19 data project connected to the FUFF platform (fuff.org)

http://fuff.org/data/cr0.html

At the bottom of this page are tabs. they link to the other sheets/pages

example result only for simplified 4 cluster simulation

the risk with protecting risk groups

example case:

an example of 4 clusters

#1 has higher activities and/or is more freuently exposed, #2 is not in physical distancing but working out of home

#3 is very careful and able to distance themselves, but still has a considerable amount of necessary contact

#4 is a protected risk group. But a lot of its members are dependable of help through contacts with high exposure.

Others are gathered together in nursery homes, hospitals etc.. So the inner spreading probability of the cluster is higher than group #3, once the virus gets through the protection.

Even cluster #3, who would normally have no problems with a prob of 0.8 get a reasonable amount of infections through the leakage from cluster #1 (and #2)

As long as the spread probability per person within the risk cluster is not a lot below 1, it is very difficult to protect a risk group.

Why a lot below? See the dangers of averages example. Because it is only an average of subclusters/indivdiual persons with different probabilities.

This may be difficult if not impossible for nurse homes, hospitals etc.

The reason is you have to consider the caring persons as a (potentially superspreading) subcluster of the protected risk cluster (and not as a separate cluster overspilling).

The overspill then is either the infection of a caring person from outside or through a person from inside that has been infected by a visitor or another accident.

Even if careful it is a matter of time.