At the bottom of this page are tabs. they link to the other sheets/pages
html version: http://fuff.org/data/cr2.html (only demo, you can not play yourself)
important for html export: if you come back for updated versions, you have to refresh every single page!! sorry
google sheet link here: http://fuff.org/data/cr0.html (make a copy and start trying)
important for google sheets export: I might replace this with a new google sheet so check that link above for the active google sheet link!!
important for google sheets: I am not sure it really behaves the same in all details (matrix formula etc.). better ask for the excel version! 
simulation                    
-> read tab 'about and howto' for important explanations!
The parameters have been reset to initial values. They are not adjusted to an actual scenario. See example results.
32       75 25 100 100 75 25
divide:       1.1666667 0.5 100 2
75       87.5                               12.5                               100 100
25       56.25 18.75 18.75 6.25 100 100 75 25 75 25
      1.3611111 0.5833333 0.5833333 0.25 100 2 2
depth       76.5625               10.9375               10.9375               1.5625               100 100
2       42.1875 14.0625 14.0625 4.6875 14.0625 4.6875 4.6875 1.5625 100 100 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25
      1.587963 0.6805556 0.6805556 0.2916667 0.6805556 0.2916667 0.2916667 0.125 100 2 2 2 2
ReachPoints:       66.992188       9.5703125       9.5703125       1.3671875       9.5703125       1.3671875       1.3671875       0.1953125       100 100
1       31.64063 10.54688 10.54688 3.515625 10.54688 3.515625 3.515625 1.171875 10.54688 3.515625 3.515625 1.171875 3.515625 1.171875 1.171875 0.390625 100 100 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25
not used at the moment       1.8526235 0.7939815 0.7939815 0.3402778 0.7939815 0.3402778 0.3402778 0.1458333 0.7939815 0.3402778 0.3402778 0.1458333 0.3402778 0.1458333 0.1458333 0.0625 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
      58.618164 8.3740234 8.3740234 1.1962891 8.3740234 1.1962891 1.1962891 0.1708984 8.3740234 1.1962891 1.1962891 0.1708984 1.1962891 0.1708984 0.1708984 0.0244141 100 100
      23.73047 7.910156 7.910156 2.636719 7.910156 2.636719 2.636719 0.878906 7.910156 2.636719 2.636719 0.878906 2.636719 0.878906 0.878906 0.292969 7.910156 2.636719 2.636719 0.878906 2.636719 0.878906 0.878906 0.292969 2.636719 0.878906 0.878906 0.292969 0.878906 0.292969 0.292969 0.0976563 100 100 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25 75 25
      2.161394 0.9263117 0.9263117 0.3969907 0.9263117 0.3969907 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.9263117 0.3969907 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.1701389 0.0729167 0.9263117 0.3969907 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.1701389 0.0729167 0.3969907 0.1701389 0.1701389 0.0729167 0.1701389 0.0729167 0.0729167 0.03125 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
contacts needed       51.290894 7.3272705 7.3272705 1.0467529 7.3272705 1.0467529 1.0467529 0.1495361 7.3272705 1.0467529 1.0467529 0.1495361 1.0467529 0.1495361 0.1495361 0.0213623 7.3272705 1.0467529 1.0467529 0.1495361 1.0467529 0.1495361 0.1495361 0.0213623 1.0467529 0.1495361 0.1495361 0.0213623 0.1495361 0.0213623 0.0213623 0.003051758 100 100
1 not used at the moment
population
80000000 18984375 6328125 6328125 2109375 6328125 2109375 2109375 703125 6328125 2109375 2109375 703125 2109375 703125 703125 234375 6328125 2109375 2109375 703125 2109375 703125 703125 234375 2109375 703125 703125 234375 703125 234375 234375 78125 80000000
(initial) spread 2.500 5.4034851 2.3157793 2.3157793 0.9924769 2.3157793 0.9924769 0.9924769 0.4253472 2.3157793 0.9924769 0.9924769 0.4253472 0.9924769 0.4253472 0.4253472 0.1822917 2.3157793 0.9924769 0.9924769 0.4253472 0.9924769 0.4253472 0.4253472 0.1822917 0.9924769 0.4253472 0.4253472 0.1822917 0.4253472 0.1822917 0.1822917 0.078125 200000000 2.5
days (norm) 15
spread/day 0.1667 0.3602323 0.1543853 0.1543853 0.0661651 0.1543853 0.0661651 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.1543853 0.0661651 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.0283565 0.0121528 0.1543853 0.0661651 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.0283565 0.0121528 0.0661651 0.0283565 0.0283565 0.0121528 0.0283565 0.0121528 0.0121528 0.005208333
days (influenced) (initial value) 15 attention: because of the construction the adjustable values in the matrix below become a weight, not the eventually applicated probability. to calculate/develop the resulting probability use the row below to test!
leakage pct 5% test: 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
resulting p: 5.4034851 2.32 2.3 1 2.3 1 1 0.4 2.3 1 1 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 0.2 2.3 1 1 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 0.2 1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 (*0% if divide=100, = only 1 cluster)
day spread days (influenced) leakage pct clusters                                                                 sum sum2 yet spreading immune or isolated (incl. fatalities) daily new   spread weight/c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 c13 c14 c15 c16 c17 c18 c19 c20 c21 c22 c23 c24 c25 c26 c27 c28 c29 c30 c31 c32 days/c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 c13 c14 c15 c16 c17 c18 c19 c20 c21 c22 c23 c24 c25 c26 c27 c28 c29 c30 c31 c32 leakage pct/c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 c13 c14 c15 c16 c17 c18 c19 c20 c21 c22 c23 c24 c25 c26 c27 c28 c29 c30 c31 c32
0 2.5 15 5% 0.512909 0.073273 0.073273 0.010468 0.073273 0.010468 0.010468 0.001495 0.073273 0.010468 0.010468 0.001495 0.010468 0.001495 0.001495 0.000214 0.073273 0.010468 0.010468 0.001495 0.010468 0.001495 0.001495 0.000214 0.010468 0.001495 0.001495 0.000214 0.001495 0.000214 0.000214 3.052E-05 1 1 1 0 1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
1 2.5 15 5% 0.691167 0.084634 0.084634 0.011214 0.084634 0.011214 0.011214 0.001548 0.084634 0.011214 0.011214 0.001548 0.011214 0.001548 0.001548 0.000218 0.084634 0.011214 0.011214 0.001548 0.011214 0.001548 0.001548 0.000218 0.011214 0.001548 0.001548 0.000218 0.001548 0.000218 0.000218 3.092E-05 1.24307934 1.24307934 1.24307934 0 0.24307934 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
2 2.5 15 5% 0.930791 0.097815 0.097815 0.012029 0.097815 0.012029 0.012029 0.001606 0.097815 0.012029 0.012029 0.001606 0.012029 0.001606 0.001606 0.000223 0.097815 0.012029 0.012029 0.001606 0.012029 0.001606 0.001606 0.000223 0.012029 0.001606 0.001606 0.000223 0.001606 0.000223 0.000223 3.139E-05 1.55735876 1.55735876 1.55735876 0 0.31427942 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
3 2.5 15 5% 1.252839 0.113129 0.113129 0.012924 0.113129 0.012924 0.012924 0.001668 0.113129 0.012924 0.012924 0.001668 0.012924 0.001668 0.001668 0.000228 0.113129 0.012924 0.012924 0.001668 0.012924 0.001668 0.001668 0.000228 0.012924 0.001668 0.001668 0.000228 0.001668 0.000228 0.000228 3.194E-05 1.96557667 1.96557667 1.96557667 0 0.40821791 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
4 2.5 15 5% 1.68558 0.130949 0.130949 0.013911 0.130949 0.013911 0.013911 0.001738 0.130949 0.013911 0.013911 0.001738 0.013911 0.001738 0.001738 0.000234 0.130949 0.013911 0.013911 0.001738 0.013911 0.001738 0.001738 0.000234 0.013911 0.001738 0.001738 0.000234 0.001738 0.000234 0.000234 3.26E-05 2.498021 2.498021 2.498021 0 0.53244433 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5 2.5 15 5% 2.266974 0.151724 0.151724 0.015008 0.151724 0.015008 0.015008 0.001816 0.151724 0.015008 0.015008 0.001816 0.015008 0.001816 0.001816 0.000241 0.151724 0.015008 0.015008 0.001816 0.015008 0.001816 0.001816 0.000241 0.015008 0.001816 0.001816 0.000241 0.001816 0.000241 0.000241 3.34E-05 3.19507922 3.19507922 3.19507922 0 0.69705822 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
…. and so on
the model has 5013 days but it makes no sense to display that in html as it is 100MB. so please look at the google sheet version or better, ask for the Excel by mail.
5011 2.5 15 5% 18932782 5488629 5488629 404947.1 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 15709.31 1631.813 1631.813 208.36706 50590857.3 50590857.3 0 50590857.3 0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5012 2.5 15 5% 18932782 5488629 5488629 404947.1 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 15709.31 1631.813 1631.813 208.36706 50590857.3 50590857.3 0 50590857.3 0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5013 2.5 15 5% 18932782 5488629 5488629 404947.1 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 5488629 404947.1 404947.1 15709.31 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 404947.1 15709.31 15709.31 1631.813 15709.31 1631.813 1631.813 208.36706 50590857.3 50590857.3 0 50590857.3 0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%